July has 8,377 closed transactions as of 8/1/2011. Of those 3,597 (43%) are Bank Owned and 1,991 (24%) are Short Sales. The percentage of distressed sales continues in the 2 out of 3 range.
July 2011 had the 4 highest number of homes sold compared to the last 11 years. It’s an above average or above normal number. However 7/11 was down 21% from June in a month to month comparison; but 7/11 was up 18% from 7/10 in a year over year comparison. Note: ARMLS is currently over-reporting 6/11 total closings @ 11,125. My search today for 6/11 closings found 10,582, which is the number I used for this report.
Our inventory remains low with 20,217 in active status. We could add the ~7,600 properties in AWC status (6,900 – 91% of these are short sales), but I like to compare to previous reports of actives less the properties with contracts on them. So we now have a 2.4 month supply of active inventory, but only because there were ‘only’ 8,377 closings instead of +10,000. A balanced market has 4-6 months inventory, so we’re still in a seller’s market with lots of multiple offer situations.
Bank owned properties have a 1 month supply with approx 3,600 active and 3,600 closed in July. HUD owned homes have a 2 week supply with 289 active and 554 closed.
Short sales come in with 3,900 active, 6,900 AWC, 3,900 pending, and 1,991 (24%) closed.
Prices in July had little newsworthy developments as they continued to bump along the bottom. The median price was down slightly in July (110k), but has basically been unchanged since 12/10. Both the average price ($155k) and the price per square foot (~$80) are at or below their previous low figures from 2/11.
As I look back at July’s performance, I remember when July/August used to have a ‘close before school starts’ flurry of activity. But with only 1 of 3 sales normal (non-distressed), and 73% of all closings vacant, the back to school rush might apply more to rentals than sales in this market.
That’s how I see it on August 1, 2011. Try to stay cool this month.
Once again building the Phoenix real estate market report first thing on the first of the month produced some surprising results. The number of closings looks too high, especially the number and percentage of short sale closings. Even though I think these numbers will change, I’ll report them as I see them on 7/1/11.
June 2011 had 10,509 closed transactions; highest number of home sales from any June. In fact, it happens to be the highest number of home sales from any single month ever, previous high 10,250. The Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) has reported +10,000 sales only 3 other times: 6/04, 6/05, and 8/05. This is the first time over 10,000 in almost 6 years.
Phoenix Market Trends
Looking at recent Phoenix market trends, June 2011 sales volume increased 7% over May 2011 and by 13% over June 2010.
Fortunately in early July, we have good news on the price front as well. Both the average and median home sales price increased month over month 2% and 3% respectively – $161,000 and $111,000.
Since we have 6 months in the books, I looked at the year to date comparisons 2011 vs. 2010 and 2011 vs. all-time. Remember 2010’s number of transactions were approximately 92,000 which ranked fourth highest home sales all time. Greater Phoenix’s highest year with 104,700 came in 2005. Well, 2011 is off to a very strong start with 53,501 closings YTD. That’s 11% higher than 2010′s numbers and 1% off of the record setting 2005.
In the middle of each month, ARMLS publishes their official market reports for the previous month’s transactions. That’s when Leif Swanson updates his spreadsheet and shares it with all the REALTORS® at John Hall & Associates. When he sends it over to be added to the company intranet, he includes interesting talking points. Talking points worth passing along…
27.73% of the listings sold in April, the highest percentage since November 2005
3.61 months’ inventory, the lowest since November 2005
$161,297 average sold price, the highest in 6 months
$111,000 median sold price, the best in 5 months
$193,168 average new list price, the 2nd lowest in 10 years
Homes sold for 95.68% of final list price, the best in 8 months
$83.5/square foot, the best in 8 months
Active listings are down 32.5% since January 1st
14,431 pendings on May 13, the 3rd highest total ever
In the middle of each month, ARMLS publishes their official market reports for the previous month’s transactions. That’s when Leif Swanson updates his spreadsheet and shares it with all the REALTORS® at John Hall & Associates. When he sends it over to be added to the company intranet, he includes interesting talking points. Talking points worth passing along…