July has 8,377 closed transactions as of 8/1/2011. Of those 3,597 (43%) are Bank Owned and 1,991 (24%) are Short Sales. The percentage of distressed sales continues in the 2 out of 3 range.
July 2011 had the 4 highest number of homes sold compared to the last 11 years. It’s an above average or above normal number. However 7/11 was down 21% from June in a month to month comparison; but 7/11 was up 18% from 7/10 in a year over year comparison. Note: ARMLS is currently over-reporting 6/11 total closings @ 11,125. My search today for 6/11 closings found 10,582, which is the number I used for this report.
Our inventory remains low with 20,217 in active status. We could add the ~7,600 properties in AWC status (6,900 – 91% of these are short sales), but I like to compare to previous reports of actives less the properties with contracts on them. So we now have a 2.4 month supply of active inventory, but only because there were ‘only’ 8,377 closings instead of +10,000. A balanced market has 4-6 months inventory, so we’re still in a seller’s market with lots of multiple offer situations.
Bank owned properties have a 1 month supply with approx 3,600 active and 3,600 closed in July. HUD owned homes have a 2 week supply with 289 active and 554 closed.
Short sales come in with 3,900 active, 6,900 AWC, 3,900 pending, and 1,991 (24%) closed.
Prices in July had little newsworthy developments as they continued to bump along the bottom. The median price was down slightly in July (110k), but has basically been unchanged since 12/10. Both the average price ($155k) and the price per square foot (~$80) are at or below their previous low figures from 2/11.
As I look back at July’s performance, I remember when July/August used to have a ‘close before school starts’ flurry of activity. But with only 1 of 3 sales normal (non-distressed), and 73% of all closings vacant, the back to school rush might apply more to rentals than sales in this market.
That’s how I see it on August 1, 2011. Try to stay cool this month.
Once again building the Phoenix real estate market report first thing on the first of the month produced some surprising results. The number of closings looks too high, especially the number and percentage of short sale closings. Even though I think these numbers will change, I’ll report them as I see them on 7/1/11.
June 2011 had 10,509 closed transactions; highest number of home sales from any June. In fact, it happens to be the highest number of home sales from any single month ever, previous high 10,250. The Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) has reported +10,000 sales only 3 other times: 6/04, 6/05, and 8/05. This is the first time over 10,000 in almost 6 years.
Phoenix Market Trends
Looking at recent Phoenix market trends, June 2011 sales volume increased 7% over May 2011 and by 13% over June 2010.
Fortunately in early July, we have good news on the price front as well. Both the average and median home sales price increased month over month 2% and 3% respectively – $161,000 and $111,000.
Since we have 6 months in the books, I looked at the year to date comparisons 2011 vs. 2010 and 2011 vs. all-time. Remember 2010’s number of transactions were approximately 92,000 which ranked fourth highest home sales all time. Greater Phoenix’s highest year with 104,700 came in 2005. Well, 2011 is off to a very strong start with 53,501 closings YTD. That’s 11% higher than 2010′s numbers and 1% off of the record setting 2005.
The Information Market released their greater Maricopa County foreclosure statistics for May 2011. Although April’s numbers were probably more newsworthy with a greater number of foreclosures completed than new notices issued, May’s numbers provide newsworthy occurrences also. It’s time to review the current Phoenix foreclosure market and identify some significant changes that have occurred since the first of the year.
Foreclosure numbers as of 5/31/2011
Total active residential notices are 27,396; the lowest number since 11/08. The number has dropped 28% since the first of the year, which is more than 10,000 fewer residential properties in foreclosure.
The number of new notices in May was basically the same as the number of completed foreclosures. This is only the 2nd time that new monthly notices were not greater than monthly completions in the past 10 years;
There were 4,000+ residential foreclosures cancelled last month; second highest all time.
With only 1,900 short sales closed (Maricopa County) for May, there are other reasons that trustee sales are being canceled.
New notices for May were basically the same as April and April had the fewest since 11/07.
The number of residential properties currently owned by banks in Maricopa County is 18,451; the lowest since July of last year.
Bank Owned Inventory = 18,451
3,901 active listings in ARMLS;
325 listings in AWC status;
4,986 properties in pending status.
This accounts for 9,212 of the 18,451, or 50% of all bank owned properties. Where’s the other 50%? Good question. I imagine there are a number of issues such as previous owner evictions, tenants with valid leases, title issues, maintenance/property condition issues, or a few others that fall into the “miscellaneous legal issues” category. With basically a 1 month supply of active REO listings in the county (3,901 active / 3,765 sold in May), bringing on the other 50% of bank owned inventory will not “flood the market.” In fact, adding 9,000 active listings would add an additional 1 month supply to our current 2.4 month supply for the entire market.
As various sources reported last month, these developments are significant steps necessary for our market to improve. Sure these might be small steps and we’re not out of the woods yet, but I thought you might be interested in a year-to-date review as we head into our summer selling season.
Once again when I ran my initial numbers for May, I was pleasantly surprised. Initial closings for the Greater Phoenix real estate market in May 2011 are 9802, which is within 88 sales of the highest May on record (2005). May 2011 is 5% over April 2011 and 7% above May 2010, which continues 2011’s improvement over 2010’s numbers.
Now the reality check: Prices fell slightly
Average Sales Price $158,000 down 2%;
Median Sales Price-$108,000 down 3%;
Price per square foot-$82.55-down 1%.
These price numbers are all down from April, which can be attributed again to the ‘mix or make-up’ of the sales figures. REO sales were 44% of the total and Short Sales came in at 22% of all sales. So ‘distress sales’ bumped up slightly, which dropped prices accordingly.
I like the Price Analysis that the Cromford Report published at the end of May. It compared prices a number of ways: such as greater Phoenix vs. outside greater Phoenix; single family vs. condos; various price range points from under $25,000 to over $3 million; and finally a breakdown by city showing today’s price per square foot and comparing it to 90 days ago and last year. Yes all cities are down year over year, but the results are mixed comparing the last 90 days. This is valuable information to provide to clients buying a house, REO sellers, appraisers and anyone else trying to evaluate prices for the Phoenix area.
Besides the number of sales in May, probably the biggest news is number of Active Listings. Current number of Actives stands at 23,624 which is only 2.4 month supply of homes. A balanced market has a 4 to 6 month supply, so we are in a ‘seller’s market’, but prices are the last piece to feel the impact of the short supply. It’s a 5 year low for number of Active Listings and if you factor out the AWC’s, you have to go even further back to reach a 2.4 month supply. Within the Active Listing numbers bank-owned properties have a greater shortage with a 1 month supply of inventory and only a 3 week supply of HUD homes. I guess the shortage of supply explains the return of the multiple offer situations and the dreaded multiple counter offers to explain to frustrated buyers.
The market doesn’t really show any signs of cooling off with 13,254 Pending Listings; the same number as the start of May.
There are a few warning signs on the horizon as the Federal government considers how to deal with Fannie and Freddie, maximum loan amounts, and minimum down payment requirements.
In the middle of each month, ARMLS publishes their official market reports for the previous month’s transactions. That’s when Leif Swanson updates his spreadsheet and shares it with all the REALTORS® at John Hall & Associates. When he sends it over to be added to the company intranet, he includes interesting talking points. Talking points worth passing along…
27.73% of the listings sold in April, the highest percentage since November 2005
3.61 months’ inventory, the lowest since November 2005
$161,297 average sold price, the highest in 6 months
$111,000 median sold price, the best in 5 months
$193,168 average new list price, the 2nd lowest in 10 years
Homes sold for 95.68% of final list price, the best in 8 months
$83.5/square foot, the best in 8 months
Active listings are down 32.5% since January 1st
14,431 pendings on May 13, the 3rd highest total ever
April’s initial numbers show another strong month in the greater Phoenix real estate market. We had 9314 closings, # 2 April of all time, with #1 April/05 possibly in reach. The number of closings was down 7% from March/11, but up 1% from 4/10. Prices moved in a positive direction with the Average Sales Price up $4000/2% to $161,100 and the Median Sales Price moving up $1000 to $111,000.
Bank owned sales dropped 2.5% to 44% of closings (4118) and Short Sales moved up 1% to 20% of closed sales (1845).
With Active listings below 27,000 and sales over 9000 for the month, there is less than a 3 month supply of homes, which by definition is a seller’s market. This should indicate an upward movement for prices on the horizon. On the REO front, there are 5253 Active listings and 4118 sales, or a 1.3 month supply. Short Sales have more AWC listings (6727) than Active (6484), and another 3849 in Pending status-will they ever close?
Regarding MARS disclosures, we are entering our second month waiting for ‘clarification’ from NAR and the FTC regarding which disclosures need to be made by real estate agents. We’re still hearing it’s “coming soon”. Not everyone doing Short Sales are ‘up to speed’ on the state and national requirements. Some agents think their fees were ‘grandfathered’ and Short Sale Negotiator fees are now being called any thing but a Short Sale negotiator fee.
That’s my report for the Phoenix real estate market. Stay tuned, we’ll post about any MARS development once it’s announced.
Recently I sat in on an ARMLS class about the Cromford Report that showed agents where to find useful Phoenix real estate statistics. It was interesting and I learned a few things and found a few reports which I’ve included here. The instructor stated that most users find their ‘favorite’ reports and always go to those. As a creature of habit, I’m guilty of that, so having someone else navigate the site and point out a few different reports gave me some different insight into the market.
For example the chart Foreclosures per Month, shows a dramatic trend with the number of completed foreclosures (Trustee Deeds) catching up with number of new notices. What that means is that the number of homes in Foreclosure will continue to trend downward. It appears that we may finally be working our way through the Foreclosure issue.
The next chart/trend that caught my eye was Sales to Landlords/Investors. This chart also gives you the last 10 years tracking not only the number of sales to investors but the percentage. Understand that this is the ‘honor’ system since the Affidavit of Value is being used to determine Owner Occupants from Landlords, but @ 25% of all sales and over 2000 for the month of March (Maricopa County only)you can see how many buyers are buying to rent.
The final chart describing a trend of today is the percentage of homes purchased for cash. It’s interesting to note that the percentage didn’t top 20% until 10/8 and didn’t cross over 40% until 12/10, but has stayed above 40% since then.
I hope you find these specific Phoenix real estate statistics interesting and informative and agree they present a slightly different view of today’s market. The Cromford Report contains many similar ‘hidden gems’. If you get a chance you may want to check it our for yourself or attend a class to better find your way around the website.
We have narrowed the focus of our Maricopa County Foreclosure chart. This improvement affects everyone that has embedded this chart on their website. Since our primarily focus is residential real estate, it only makes sense that our foreclosure chart tracks residential statistics instead of all foreclosures.
Why change now?
Last month when I was updating the chart, I noticed almost all of the numbers in my spreadsheet were slightly different than the source sheet provided by the Information Market/Cromford Report. Since I was going to be removing/replacing all the numbers, why not take advantage of the residential only columns that were added after we began publishing this chart? The spreadsheet was updated.
Why were the numbers different?
After running recent inquires for previous months, Michael Orr and Tom Ruff found there were several (in some cases hundreds) of trustee sales that had been rescinded. They re-ran and updated all months to make sure they are reporting the most accurate data. From my understanding they will be doing this on a monthly basis.
Why our foreclosure statistics will be different
Once I updated the charts it hit me. Unless we add a margin of error to the mix, we’re not going to be able to identify high/low marks or accurately compare past month’s foreclosure activity to the current month. Since we’re only using the data to identify and report trends, a consistent counting time-frame is more efficient than error margins. Our decision is to NOT update the historical data.
Moral of the story
We’re going to assume there is a consistent margin of error and stick with historic data.
Our Maricopa County Residential Foreclosure chart will have slightly different numbers than the Information Market/Cromford Report spreadsheet.
As I checked ARMLS this morning, I was surprised with the closed numbers for March, but this is not an April Fool’s Day joke.
ARMLS is reporting 9789 closed transactions, which is the first +9000 month since June of 2010 and the highest month since August of 2005. In addition, it’s the 2nd highest March of all time (and only 200 less than the top figure from March of 2005). March 2011 shows a 37% increase over February and a 9% increase over March of 2010. The first quarter of 2011 is up 10% over the first quarter of 2010. These are obviously very positive sales figures.
REO’s make up 46% of closings and Short Sales were 20%, so distress sales are still about 2 out of 3 of all closings, which is down from the 70% figure at the first of the year. Pendings are up 43% from January 1, 2011 @ 12,907, while Active listings are down 16%, hovering around 30,000 for the first time since March of 2006. There are also 7000 AWC listings currently, with 88% of those in a Short Sale category.
On the price front, it appears that prices are improving slightly with the Median Price the same as last month @$110,000; the Average Sales Price was up ~2% from February @ $159,000; while the price per square foot was $82.15 which is up about 1% from February’s figure.
March had some excellent articles from the Cromford Report. One article in the Good News section called the Market’s second bottom for prices (double dip) in February of 2011, which was slightly below the previous low mark, which occurred in April of 2009; and the most current article in the News section shows the percent of foreclosures by Zip Code. If you haven’t been on the Cromford Report’s web site recently, you should check it out. You’ll find excellent visual tools for describing to buyers, sellers, appraisers and lenders, our market with the most current information.
Just a footnote about Short Sale disclosures and MARS-it appears that MARS disclosure requirements, which were widely publicized last month, have not negatively impacted the Short Sales market. Now if NAR can get the FTC to apply some common sense to the MARS disclosure requirements for real estate agents, maybe Short Sales will continue to improve. Oh well, you can always hope and pray.
I didn’t forget to write my Phoenix market report on the first, but I was sidetracked with a quick trip to MARS. Stay tuned for more on MARS from every source. Check our blog, aaronline.com, or ADRE’s website for MARS announcements… yes even if you checked them last week. I guarantee you there are new announcements posted. So many changes involving short sale disclosures in the last 30 days. What a challenge to educate the agents!
Hey this is a Market Report. February had 7060 closed transactions. Plus 8% from January 2011; plus 7% from February 2010. Also to be noted 2/11 had the 2nd most closings for a February of all time; previous #2 was 2/10; 2/5 is the #1 February. Prices are appearing to stabilize, although that may not be the right word. They certainly aren’t dropping like they did in the 3rd and 4th quarter last year, when the market was recovering from the tax credit going away. Median price stayed the same-$110,000, average sales price dropped less than 1% to $155,735; and price per square foot rose less than 1% to $81.68. Overall not too bad considering REO’s continue to make up 46% of all sales-3265 (Avg. Sales Price $109K); and Short Sales are 22% (Avg. Sales Price$147K) of February’s closings-1521.
Other trends to watch are Pending Sales which are up 13% since Feb 1st ;Active listings which are down 5% in the same time period; and Short Sale activity in the next 30-90 days. I am concerned with these new MARS Disclosure requirements and the impact they will have on closing Short Sales. Fearful agents usually don’t venture into the unknown, i.e. how to comply with MARS disclosure requirements. This will probably result in fewer Short Sales closing until all Short Sale Negotiator questions are answered.
But let’s go back to prices and overall market activity and get Tom Ruff’s opinion. Tom is President of the Information Market and he says in his latest newsletter:
I’m starting to see a bottom forming: sales volumes are up year over year, new notices are declining, pending active notices are declining, higher prices are being paid by investors at auction, and large hedge funds are taking a close look at our market and are prepared to hit the ground running. As for Maricopa County median prices on resale homes; December, January, and February were all $115,000. REO inventories appear to have leveled. The numbers that made us pessimistic in July are the same numbers that are now making me optimistic.
Tom –Are you reading my e-mail or just forming my thoughts? I couldn’t have said it better and I like your vision.
In the middle of each month, ARMLS publishes their official market reports for the previous month’s transactions. That’s when Leif Swanson updates his spreadsheet and shares it with all the REALTORS® at John Hall & Associates. When he sends it over to be added to the company intranet, he includes interesting talking points. Talking points worth passing along…
