Phoenix Real Estate Market – July 2011
Once again building the Phoenix real estate market report first thing on the first of the month produced some surprising results. The number of closings looks too high, especially the number and percentage of short sale closings. Even though I think these numbers will change, I’ll report them as I see them on 7/1/11.
June 2011 had 10,509 closed transactions; highest number of home sales from any June. In fact, it happens to be the highest number of home sales from any single month ever, previous high 10,250. The Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) has reported +10,000 sales only 3 other times: 6/04, 6/05, and 8/05. This is the first time over 10,000 in almost 6 years.
Phoenix Market Trends
Looking at recent Phoenix market trends, June 2011 sales volume increased 7% over May 2011 and by 13% over June 2010.
Fortunately in early July, we have good news on the price front as well. Both the average and median home sales price increased month over month 2% and 3% respectively – $161,000 and $111,000.
Since we have 6 months in the books, I looked at the year to date comparisons 2011 vs. 2010 and 2011 vs. all-time. Remember 2010’s number of transactions were approximately 92,000 which ranked fourth highest home sales all time. Greater Phoenix’s highest year with 104,700 came in 2005. Well, 2011 is off to a very strong start with 53,501 closings YTD. That’s 11% higher than 2010′s numbers and 1% off of the record setting 2005.
Phoenix Real Estate Market Report – Feb 2011
I didn’t forget to write my Phoenix market report on the first, but I was sidetracked with a quick trip to MARS. Stay tuned for more on MARS from every source. Check our blog, aaronline.com, or ADRE’s website for MARS announcements… yes even if you checked them last week. I guarantee you there are new announcements posted. So many changes involving short sale disclosures in the last 30 days. What a challenge to educate the agents!
Hey this is a Market Report. February had 7060 closed transactions. Plus 8% from January 2011; plus 7% from February 2010. Also to be noted 2/11 had the 2nd most closings for a February of all time; previous #2 was 2/10; 2/5 is the #1 February. Prices are appearing to stabilize, although that may not be the right word. They certainly aren’t dropping like they did in the 3rd and 4th quarter last year, when the market was recovering from the tax credit going away. Median price stayed the same-$110,000, average sales price dropped less than 1% to $155,735; and price per square foot rose less than 1% to $81.68. Overall not too bad considering REO’s continue to make up 46% of all sales-3265 (Avg. Sales Price $109K); and Short Sales are 22% (Avg. Sales Price$147K) of February’s closings-1521.
Other trends to watch are Pending Sales which are up 13% since Feb 1st ;Active listings which are down 5% in the same time period; and Short Sale activity in the next 30-90 days. I am concerned with these new MARS Disclosure requirements and the impact they will have on closing Short Sales. Fearful agents usually don’t venture into the unknown, i.e. how to comply with MARS disclosure requirements. This will probably result in fewer Short Sales closing until all Short Sale Negotiator questions are answered.
But let’s go back to prices and overall market activity and get Tom Ruff’s opinion. Tom is President of the Information Market and he says in his latest newsletter:
I’m starting to see a bottom forming: sales volumes are up year over year, new notices are declining, pending active notices are declining, higher prices are being paid by investors at auction, and large hedge funds are taking a close look at our market and are prepared to hit the ground running. As for Maricopa County median prices on resale homes; December, January, and February were all $115,000. REO inventories appear to have leveled. The numbers that made us pessimistic in July are the same numbers that are now making me optimistic.
Tom –Are you reading my e-mail or just forming my thoughts? I couldn’t have said it better and I like your vision.