Phoenix Real Estate Market – August 2011
(Video Report: Phoenix Real Estate Market – August 2011)
July has 8,377 closed transactions as of 8/1/2011. Of those 3,597 (43%) are Bank Owned and 1,991 (24%) are Short Sales. The percentage of distressed sales continues in the 2 out of 3 range.
July 2011 had the 4 highest number of homes sold compared to the last 11 years. It’s an above average or above normal number. However 7/11 was down 21% from June in a month to month comparison; but 7/11 was up 18% from 7/10 in a year over year comparison. Note: ARMLS is currently over-reporting 6/11 total closings @ 11,125. My search today for 6/11 closings found 10,582, which is the number I used for this report.
Our inventory remains low with 20,217 in active status. We could add the ~7,600 properties in AWC status (6,900 – 91% of these are short sales), but I like to compare to previous reports of actives less the properties with contracts on them. So we now have a 2.4 month supply of active inventory, but only because there were ‘only’ 8,377 closings instead of +10,000. A balanced market has 4-6 months inventory, so we’re still in a seller’s market with lots of multiple offer situations.
Bank owned properties have a 1 month supply with approx 3,600 active and 3,600 closed in July. HUD owned homes have a 2 week supply with 289 active and 554 closed.
Short sales come in with 3,900 active, 6,900 AWC, 3,900 pending, and 1,991 (24%) closed.
Prices in July had little newsworthy developments as they continued to bump along the bottom. The median price was down slightly in July (110k), but has basically been unchanged since 12/10. Both the average price ($155k) and the price per square foot (~$80) are at or below their previous low figures from 2/11.
As I look back at July’s performance, I remember when July/August used to have a ‘close before school starts’ flurry of activity. But with only 1 of 3 sales normal (non-distressed), and 73% of all closings vacant, the back to school rush might apply more to rentals than sales in this market.
That’s how I see it on August 1, 2011. Try to stay cool this month.
Jim Sexton
John Hall & Associates Inc.
Phoenix Real Estate Market Report – May 2011
April’s initial numbers show another strong month in the greater Phoenix real estate market. We had 9314 closings, # 2 April of all time, with #1 April/05 possibly in reach. The number of closings was down 7% from March/11, but up 1% from 4/10. Prices moved in a positive direction with the Average Sales Price up $4000/2% to $161,100 and the Median Sales Price moving up $1000 to $111,000.
Bank owned sales dropped 2.5% to 44% of closings (4118) and Short Sales moved up 1% to 20% of closed sales (1845).
With Active listings below 27,000 and sales over 9000 for the month, there is less than a 3 month supply of homes, which by definition is a seller’s market. This should indicate an upward movement for prices on the horizon. On the REO front, there are 5253 Active listings and 4118 sales, or a 1.3 month supply. Short Sales have more AWC listings (6727) than Active (6484), and another 3849 in Pending status-will they ever close?
Regarding MARS disclosures, we are entering our second month waiting for ‘clarification’ from NAR and the FTC regarding which disclosures need to be made by real estate agents. We’re still hearing it’s “coming soon”. Not everyone doing Short Sales are ‘up to speed’ on the state and national requirements. Some agents think their fees were ‘grandfathered’ and Short Sale Negotiator fees are now being called any thing but a Short Sale negotiator fee.
That’s my report for the Phoenix real estate market. Stay tuned, we’ll post about any MARS development once it’s announced.